Reserve Calculator

Calculate probability-weighted expected loss for a litigation matter. Get instant IAS 37 accounting treatment recommendations.

Enter Matter Details

The maximum potential damages/judgment amount

Estimated legal fees to complete the matter

Calculation Results

Probability Midpoint Used
45%
Expected Judgment
€0
Exposure × Probability
Total Expected Outflow
€0
Expected judgment + defence costs
Disclosure required, no provision
Under IAS 37, reasonably possible contingencies require disclosure in the notes to the financial statements.

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Understanding the Calculation

What is expected loss?

Expected loss is the probability-weighted value of potential litigation outcomes. Rather than using the maximum exposure (which overstates risk) or ignoring contingencies (which understates risk), expected loss provides a statistically defensible middle ground.

Why probability-weight?

Probability weighting reflects that not all cases result in adverse outcomes. By multiplying exposure by the probability of loss, you get a value that:

  • Reflects the true economic cost across a portfolio of matters
  • Provides a defensible basis for financial planning
  • Aligns with actuarial and insurance industry practices

IAS 37 probability bands

IAS 37 establishes three probability classifications that determine accounting treatment:

Probable (>50%)

Provision required. Recognise a liability on the balance sheet for the best estimate.

Reasonably Possible (Neither remote nor probable)

Disclosure required. Describe the contingency in notes to the financial statements.

Remote (<~10%)

No disclosure required. Monitor internally but no financial statement impact.

Learn more: Read our comprehensive guide to Understanding IAS 37 for CFOs or learn how to calculate expected loss.